It’s an anxiety-inducing time for many Ontarians in these first couple of months of 2022. A continued pandemic, rising inflation, and climate challenges all lend to changes in spending behaviour for residents of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and beyond. But how do worries at the forefront of our minds play out in the real estate marketplace?
To answer some of these questions, TRREB Chief Market Analyst and Ready to Real Estate podcast host Jason Mercer discussed recent survey results with Ipsos Senior Vice President Sean Simpson. In a recent episode, they dig into current trends in home buying and selling for 2022, observed in Ontario and more broadly across Canada.
Trends in Buying
Of the potential home buyers polled about their intentions in 2022, those very likely to buy a home remained in line with the last number of years. In terms of areas, the ‘416’ or City of Toronto held firm in intent to buy, while the broader GTA was down slightly.
First-time home buyers tell a unique story. Of all surveyed who said they intend to buy, 39 per cent were first-time buyers, down two points from last year, and down from 50 per cent since Ipsos started measuring for TRREB in 2015. Simpson refers to stricter rules for down payments and rising home prices as potential reasons for first-time buyers becoming a smaller proportion of home buyers this year.
In terms of demand for home types, single detached homes “remain king”: 48 per cent of people were likely to buy a detached home, up two points from the previous year. Condos, after a brief dip in the early months of the pandemic and last year, rose two points to 21 per cent.
Trends in Selling
While the demand for single detached homes is rising, fewer current homeowners are likely to sell. The survey results showed that only 45 per cent of homeowners are considering selling their single-detached property. Prices for this type of home are likely to continue increasing given the tight supply. Other home types, like condos and townhomes, are better aligned in terms of who is planning to sell and who is looking to buy.
Overall, 35 per cent of homeowners surveyed said they would consider selling in the next four months. This is down one point from last year and down four points from 2020. In fact, Simpson says it’s the lowest they’ve ever captured. Interestingly, the reasons for the other 65 per cent staying put aren’t just that homeowners like where they are. Down five points from last year, 77 per cent said they would remain because they liked their home. Other reasons are growing, and they include moving costs, land transfer taxes, and mortgage qualifications rules.
There are unintended consequences to certain policies – like the land transfer tax – that keep market supply restricted in Ontario.
Catch Jason Mercer and Sean Simpson’s full conversation in their Ready to Real Estate episode for more insights into home buyer and seller intended behaviour, as well as a look at investor and borrower trends heading into 2022.
